Future Flows Climate: an ensemble of 1-km climate change projections for hydrological application in Great Britain

first_imgThe dataset Future Flows Climate was developed as part of the project ”Future Flows and Groundwater Levels” to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications, and to enable climate change uncertainty and climate variability to be accounted for in the assessment of their possible impacts on the environment. Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre’s ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE that is part of the basis of UKCP09 and includes projections in available precipitation (water available to hydrological processes after snow and ice storages have been accounted for) and potential evapotranspiration. It corresponds to an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1950 to December 2098, each a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3. Data are provided on a 1-km grid over the HadRM3 land areas at a daily (available precipitation) and monthly (PE) time step as netCDF files. Because systematic biases in temperature and precipitation were found between HadRM3-PPE and gridded temperature and precipitation observations for the 1962–1991 period, a monthly bias correction procedure was undertaken, based on a linear correction for temperature and a quantile-mapping correction (using the gamma distribution) for precipitation followed by a spatial downscaling. Available precipitation was derived from the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature time series using a simple elevation-dependant snow-melt model. Potential evapotranspiration time series were calculated for each month using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equations and bias-corrected temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed from HadRM3-PPE along with latitude of the grid and the day of the year. Future Flows Climate is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. It is the dataset used to generate Future Flows Hydrology, an ensemble of transient projections of daily river flow and monthly groundwater time series for representative river basins and boreholes in Great Britain. DOI:10.5285/bad1514f-119e-44a4-8e1e-442735bb9797last_img read more

Badgers defeat Buckeyes, 2-0, in regular season finale

first_imgThe Wisconsin men’s soccer team wrapped up its 2013 regular season schedule Friday night at the McClimon Complex with a 2-[media-credit name=”Claire Larkins ” align=”alignright” width=”336″][/media-credit]0 victory over Ohio State on senior night. The win extended the Badgers’ home-unbeaten streak to 13 games, good for best in the country.“It’s unbelievable to finish undefeated, untied at home,” Wisconsin head coach John Trask said of his team who finished a perfect 9-0-0 at home this season. “Compliments to the seniors, the captains, and the rest of the squad because that’s never an easy thing to do.”The home winning streak is of great importance to the players as it is a sign of how much they have been through and how their hard work has truly begun to pay off.“We’ve been through so much together,” senior co-captain Chris Prince said. “Now we realize how short of time we have left. [Coach] Trask has always had the saying ‘you have to protect your home turf, you have to be perfect at home’ and this is the first year we’ve implemented that.”Coming into Friday night’s game, the Buckeyes (6-6-5, 1-3-2 Big Ten) had allowed just nine goals to their opponents all season and the Badgers (13-3-2, 4-2-0) became just the fourth team to score more than one goal in a game against Ohio State this season.Coming into the match, the focus was on which team’s strength would in out: Ohio State’s conference-best defense, or Wisconsin’s conference-best offense. The Badgers provided the answer to that question rather quickly.The first goal came in the 23rd minute when senior Tomislav Zadro put a diving header in the back of the net off of a Drew Conner cross from inside the box. The goal was Zadro’s fourth of the season and the assist was Conner’s team-leading seventh.In the 72nd minute, senior Nick Janus netted his team-leading ninth goal of the season on a strike from inside the box to give the Badgers the 2-0 advantage. This was the ninth game of the season in which the Badgers scored multiple goals; they had seven such games in 2012 and eight in 2011.Prince pointed to the fact that because the Badgers have spent so much time getting their defense to the level it is currently at, the offense is able to play loose and with relative ease.“It’s so much fun knowing that we can go anywhere on the field and know something good is going to come out of it,” he said.The shutout was the seventh of the season for the stingy Badgers defense and just the fourth time this season that the Buckeyes were shutout in a game that did not end in a 0-0 draw.“The whole season our defense has been strong,” senior co-captain Blake Succa said after the victory. “I expected nothing different tonight and we didn’t disappoint.”For what Trask described as a “typical Big Ten game,” the match was intense from the first to the final whistle. Seven yellow cards (four Ohio State, three Wisconsin) were handed out, tied for the highest number of cautions handed out in any Big Ten match involving the Badgers this season.“It was a very physical game,” Prince said. “That’s what we expect whenever we play them. Tonight we were the better team and found a way to put two goals in. There’s no way to get a better win on senior night.”Succa mentioned that because the Badges were familiar with the physical nature of Ohio State that all they had to do was to make sure that they matched the Buckeyes’ big, strong and physical play and the soccer would take care of itself.Going forward, the Badgers have just a few days before they head to Columbus, Ohio, to battle with the rest of the Big Ten in the annual Big Ten Tournament. Having already assured themselves of a birth in the NCAA Tournament, Columbus serves as a place for Wisconsin to get the best possible seeding it can – one that might even permit them to host a game in the opening round.“We’ve put our mark thus far on the regular season,” Succa said, “Honestly I don’t know what to expect moving forward. We’re just taking it day-by-day with the Big Ten Tournament up next to hopefully improve our seeding for the NCAA Tournament.”No matter what seed they receive, the Badgers are more than confident that they can play with not just the best of the Big Ten, but the best the country has to offer.“Anyone in the country,” Prince said of who his team could beat. “I’m telling you this is the best team, the best group of guys I’ve ever been around in my entire life. We have so much confidence in ourselves, and I’m excited to see where we go from here.”The Badgers — seeded No. 2 in the tournament — will open the Big Ten tournament Nov. 13 against No. 7-seeded Northwestern, with a second-round matchup against either No. 3 Michigan State or No. 6 Ohio State Nov. X should they beat Northwestern for the second time this season.last_img read more

This was not baseball’s slowest offseason this decade. So what are we waiting for?

first_img Jose Suarez’s rocky start sinks Angels in loss to Astros With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training this week, I wanted to take stock of the last three-plus months of baseball transactions – and the perceived lack thereof. At some point, front office activity/inactivity became the subject of players’ trash talk, and not the kind of jabs that make the NBA offseason such a delirious sideshow. When the reigning National League Most Valuable Player (Christian Yelich) called out his former boss (ex-Marlins president David Samson) this week for a remark on Twitter that seemed “consistent with anti-player rhetoric,” it was hardly a shock. It was perfectly in line with baseball’s new decorum. It isn’t only the agents who are complaining about the shrinking size of their commissions. Players are on edge, and not just unsigned free agents or salty veterans complaining about a “broken” system.“I’ve always been interested in the business side of the game,” said Walker Buehler, the Dodgers’ second-year pitcher. “I think I pick (Andrew) Friedman’s mind even more than he wants me to just because I want to know. I’m not trying to be nosy or do anything with the information. I want to get it. And it’s just sad because a lot of guys put a lot of time and effort into playing this game, and the fans want to see the best players. Somebody is going to sign them, but you just hope it’s sooner rather than later.”Buehler made that remark during the Dodgers’ Fan Fest, on Jan. 26. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, the offseason’s prized free agents, remain unsigned.So what’s in dispute? What’s not in dispute?This was objectively NOT the slowest offseasonI started with a basic question: was this offseason truly the slowest in recent memory? The baseball buzzards are circling the bleated corpse of Stupid Money for free agents. What was once a golden calf – worshiped like an idol or chided as a foolish front office pursuit, depending on your point of view – is dead.Thus concludes either the best or the worst offseason this decade.There is no middle ground of opinion.Or is there? Dodgers’ Will Smith: ‘I feel like it’s been five years’ since his 2019 debut To determine the answer, I scraped the transactions pages on MLB’s official website for data going back to the 2010-11 offseason. The site categorizes transactions by month and type: minor league free agent signings, major league free agent signings, trades, and waiver claims. I lumped November, December, January and February together to define the “offseason.”First, some ground rules. For the purposes of this analysis, I included only major league transactions as listed on MLB.com. If a “player to be named later” was traded during the offseason, it counted as one trade – even if the first part of the trade was announced during the regular season. I also counted players who re-signed with their original team after becoming a free agent, but only if they signed a major league contract. A player swapped for cash counted as a trade. If one player was involved in two or more major league transactions in a single offseason, each transaction was counted individually. Multi-team trades, however, were counted as a single transaction.OK. Onto the results.Through Wednesday, there have been a total of 201 transactions (trades, signings and waiver claims) this offseason. That’s ahead of 184 transactions of a year ago, with two full weeks remaining before March. This is, objectively speaking, not the slowest offseason this decade. That title belongs to 2017-18.Now, let’s look only at free agent transactions. Has their market slowed compared to last year?Not in terms of quantity. MLB.com lists 99 major league free agent signings since the beginning of November, up from 93 a year ago – again, with the final two weeks of February uncounted. Taken together, however, the last three offseasons are on pace to hold the fewest transactions this decade – assuming the final two weeks of February mimic the first two. That might even be a conservative estimate. Harper, Machado, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, Mike Moustakas and other productive free agents could remain unsigned into March.So what makes this offseason so slow? Is it the trades and waiver claims? Nope. Again, assuming the number of trades and waiver claims in the final two weeks of February mimics the first two weeks, this will be a typical 2010s offseason – 65 trades and 44 waiver claims, compared to the decade-long average of 59 and 43, respectively.What are we missing?The changing shape of free agency seasonA funny thing happened last March. Two of the winter’s marquee free agents (pitchers Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb) signed contracts worth $40 million or more – when their new teammates had already been in spring training for weeks. That’s historically quite rare. It’s not ideal for the player, his team or even, evidently, a prospective free agent such as Buehler. But it’s becoming the new normal.March is the new February. February is the new January. January is the new December.Back to the data. During the 2015-16 offseason, almost half of all players who signed major league free agent contracts (64 of the 129) inked their deals in December. For years, this was the typical pattern: Signings crested in December, then tailed off as the new season approached.Beginning in 2017-18, the pattern changed dramatically. If we include minor league free agent contracts in our data set, there were actually more signings in January than December each of the last two years. Major league signings alone crested in December, but there appears to be a trickle-down effect. Perhaps some players hoping for major league deals settled for minor league contracts in January rather than allow their free agency to linger into February.Meanwhile, trades still peaked in December each of the last two years. Perhaps the Winter Meetings have that effect. For the free agent classes, however, the rules have changed.From afar, the shift seems fairly straightforward. There have been more trades, and fewer free agent signings, each of the last five offseasons (2014-18) compared to the first four (2010-13) this decade.For players, get ready, because here comes the important part.Oh right, the moneyThough Arrieta and Lynn might have played their cards correctly, it’s not as if holding out guarantees a player more money in free agency. This is where the players’ and agents’ gripes become apparent.The Associated Press reported in December that the average player’s salary dropped in 2018 for the first time since 2004. This week, Forbes ran some numbers and plotted the trend lines for which players are getting paid the most money. A greater share of MLB’s growing resources are going to players who have not yet reached free agency. Depending on the outcome of Machado’s and Harper’s free agency, that trend could continue.Related Articles Angels offense breaks out to split doubleheader with Astros center_img Angels’ Shohei Ohtani spending downtime working in outfield Newsroom GuidelinesNews TipsContact UsReport an Error Harvard-Westlake alum Lucas Giolito throws no-hitter for White Sox As a snapshot, consider that Nolan Arenado recently was awarded the highest salary ever given an arbitration-eligible player ($26 million). Meanwhile, the players with the two highest base salaries for 2019, Stephen Strasburg and Mike Trout, are being paid under the terms of extensions they signed with their original teams in March 2014 and May 2016, respectively. They have yet to reach the open market as free agents.Why are free agents not getting the “stupid money” of years gone by? While agents might blame the increasing influence of analytics in front offices, executives can always counter with data about baseball’s hastening aging curve. In that regard, both sides have a correct answer to stand upon. That’s also why the impending contracts for Machado and Harper, free agents at 26 years old, are being watched so carefully, still. At this point, it really is all about the money.If you’re a major league free agent – a minority class within professional baseball, albeit a prominent one – your offseason became slower and a lot less lucrative two years ago. If you’re still looking forward to free agency, you have a lot less money to look forward to.And if you’re a fan, don’t count your team out of anything once pitchers and catchers report to spring training. March is the new February.last_img read more