Paul Ryan’s prospects are grim if he stays

first_imgCategories: Editorial, OpinionNew reporting, first by Huffington Post’s Matt Fuller and then by Politico’s Tim Alberta and Rachel Bade, suggests Paul Ryan is on his way out of the House — perhaps leaving at some point during the current Congress, but at any rate before the next one convenes in January 2019. That leaves Ryan (and Mitch McConnell or whoever replaces him) with all of the responsibility and all of the blame for actually trying to get anything done. The chances that the House Republican leader can survive two grinding years of that are slim indeed, and surviving it with a decent reputation among conservative activists would be even more difficult. And if Ryan stays put and manages to survive that stretch?It’s possible that Trump could prevail in 2020, returning Congress to Republican control in the process.But at least for now it seems less than likely.Ryan’s job would certainly be easier if Democrats swept in 2020. On the other hand, being in the minority is rarely fun.For much of this, Ryan has only himself to blame. Suppose Democrats fall short, and Republicans retain their majority.In this scenario, Speaker Ryan would be spending most of his time and energy struggling to build a real working majority.Most of the lost seats would belong to mainstream conservatives.The proportion of anti-compromise radicals within the Republican caucus would increase, and so would the number of them Ryan would need to reach 218 on any vote.Everything except for must-pass legislation would likely grind to a halt — it’s not as if they’ve been able to do much even with their current, relatively large, majority.Ryan would probably have no choice but to beg Democrats for votes — especially for the must-pass items — which in turn gives them leverage and radicals more reasons to call Ryan a sell out.If Democrats win enough seats for a majority, it gets even worse. With unified government, the job of the House minority leader is relatively easy: Non-stop criticizing of the president,  and developing messaging bills and amendments to make the majority look bad.But divided government is different.It produces compromises that leaders from both parties generally must support.For House Republican leaders, that’s a disaster because the Freedom Caucus will surely blame them for whatever deals are made.It’s grueling enough with a normal president, but Trump makes things even more so.When Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush cut deals with Democrats, Republican leaders could shrug at unhappy members of their caucus and point towards the White House.But Trump has shown zero ability to cut deals, and an impressive aptitude for undercutting whatever his party’s leaders are doing.center_img Whether those reports turn out to be true or not, Ryan has never appeared to see power in the House as a long-term career goal.And the medium-term outlook for Republican leaders in that chamber is extremely grim.Republicans are almost certain to lose seats in 2018.That’s what almost always happens during a president’s first midterm.And given Donald Trump’s awful approval ratings and the poor results for Republicans in 2017, it’s hard to see anything but a good year for Democrats.By the same token, it’s hard to see how Paul Ryan will avoid having the worst job in Washington.Unless, of course, he quits.  Not only has he made several errors during his speakership, he’s being criticized for running an overly centralized House, just like Jim Wright and Newt Gingrich.Meanwhile, his wonky reputation with the media has suffered mightily as his bills on health care and taxes landed with few signs of political or policy mastery.Just as was the case with his old mentor Jack Kemp, Ryan’s skills remain those of an ideological propagandist, not a legislator or a congressional tactician.There’s a place for those strengths in Congress, but it’s not a great fit for the Speaker’s chair.Perhaps he won’t be there much longer.Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg View columnist.More from The Daily Gazette:EDITORIAL: Urgent: Today is the last day to complete the censusEDITORIAL: Beware of voter intimidationEDITORIAL: Thruway tax unfair to working motoristsFoss: Should main downtown branch of the Schenectady County Public Library reopen?EDITORIAL: Find a way to get family members into nursing homeslast_img read more


first_imgFAI Chief Executive Officer John Delaney will be the Donegal Sports Star organisation’s special guest for the 38th official annual awards ceremony in the Mount Errigal Hotel on Friday, January 31st.FAI boss John DelaneyIt’s a huge coup for the committee to have secured the soccer chief just a few short months after he rubber-stamped the appointments of Martin O’Neill and Roy Keane as the new Republic of Ireland management team.Sports Star Committee Chairperson Neil Martin who confirmed the news on Saturday evening said he was delighted that Delaney had accepted the invitation to present the awards. “John Delaney is known across all sports not just soccer over the past decade as CEO of the FAI. Coming to our awards so soon after one of the most talked managerial appointments in the history of Irish soccer will make it an extra special occasion when I’ve no doubt we’ll learn more about John’s involvement in getting Martin O’Neill and Roy Keane to manage our national team” Mr Martin said.Delaney is no stranger to Donegal having being special guest at previous soccer functions in the county including a Kilmacrennan Celtic celebration in the Lagoon four years ago. He also led the FAI delegation to Donegal in July 2012 for the week long ‘Festival of Football’ which culminated with the organisation’s AGM in the Mount Errigal Hotel.46-year-old John Delaney who is a native of Waterford became the youngest treasurer in FAI history in 2001. His father Joe was also previously treasurer of the Ireland’s governing soccer body.John rose to prominence in the wake of the 2002 Roy Keane Saipan saga, having emerged as the FAI’s public figurehead during the affair. He became acting chief executive of the organisation in December 2004, after Fran Rooney’s acrimonious departure. He took up the role full-time the following March 2005. Four years ago the FAI’s Board of Directors agreed to extend his contract for a second time again until 2015. When FIFA offered Ireland a Fair Play Award following the controversial Thierry Henry handball incident which gave France victory over the Republic of Ireland in a World cup play-off, Delaney declined and said FIFA President Sepp Blatter was “an embarrassment to himself and an embarrassment to FIFA”.Prior to securing the services of O’Neill and Keane, Delaney had overseen the appointments of Steve Staunton and Giovanni Trapattoni as Irish managers. FAI BOSS DELANEY TO BE SPECIAL GUEST AT SPORTS STAR AWARDS was last modified: January 6th, 2014 by StephenShare this:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)Click to print (Opens in new window) Tags:DONEGAL SPORTS STAR AWARDSFAIJohn Delaneylast_img read more